Dreams & Nightmares Case

Knives in pool

Released November 17, 2021

EV prices via Skinport

Est. EV / open

$1.22

Open cost

$3.29

Expected net

-$2.07

Expected return

-63%

Buy Dreams & Nightmares Case

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Open-cost calculator

Number of opens

Total cost: $32.90
Expected return: $12.20
Expected net: −$20.70
Chance of a rare special: 2.57%

Estimates weight each skin's price by its float range and StatTrak chance, on the published CS2 drop odds. Any single open still swings on the exact float you roll — over many opens, the house edge means you should expect to lose money.

Drop pool by rarity

Covert

Drop 0.64%Avg $53.33

MP9 | Starlight Protector$54.40
AK-47 | Nightwish$52.25

Classified

Drop 3.2%Avg $5.39

FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement$5.41
Dual Berettas | Melondrama$5.38
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition$5.37

Restricted

Drop 16%Avg $0.61

M4A1-S | Night Terror$0.73
USP-S | Ticket to Hell$0.67
G3SG1 | Dream Glade$0.61
PP-Bizon | Space Cat$0.53
XM1014 | Zombie Offensive$0.52

Mil-Spec

Drop 80%Avg $0.09

MAC-10 | Ensnared$0.10
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.$0.10
Five-SeveN | Scrawl$0.09
P2000 | Lifted Spirits$0.09
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board$0.09
MAG-7 | Foresight$0.08
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist$0.07

★ Knives

Drop 0.26%Avg $206.46

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler
★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic
★ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Each skin's value is estimated across all wear conditions — weighted by its float range and blended with StatTrak — rather than a live quote for a single listing. Drop odds follow the published CS2 container rates. Expected value is what an average open is worth across many openings; individual results vary widely.