Fever Case

Knives in pool

Released February 4, 2025

EV prices via Skinport

Est. EV / open

$1.15

Open cost

$3.12

Expected net

-$1.97

Expected return

-63%

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Open-cost calculator

Number of opens

Total cost: $31.20
Expected return: $11.49
Expected net: −$19.71
Chance of a rare special: 2.57%

Estimates weight each skin's price by its float range and StatTrak chance, on the published CS2 drop odds. Any single open still swings on the exact float you roll — over many opens, the house edge means you should expect to lose money.

Drop pool by rarity

Covert

Drop 0.64%Avg $49.93

AWP | Printstream$53.99
FAMAS | Bad Trip$45.86

Classified

Drop 3.2%Avg $5.54

Glock-18 | Shinobu$5.96
AK-47 | Searing Rage$5.66
UMP-45 | K.O. Factory$5.00

Restricted

Drop 16%Avg $0.67

P90 | Wave Breaker$0.78
Nova | Rising Sun$0.70
Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike$0.68
Galil AR | Control$0.67
Zeus x27 | Tosai$0.53

Mil-Spec

Drop 80%Avg $0.15

USP-S | PC-GRN$0.21
M4A4 | Choppa$0.20
SSG 08 | Memorial$0.16
MP9 | Nexus$0.15
MAG-7 | Resupply$0.11
P2000 | Sure Grip$0.11
XM1014 | Mockingbird$0.11

★ Knives

Drop 0.26%Avg $163.71

★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler
★ Nomad Knife | Doppler
★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade

Each skin's value is estimated across all wear conditions — weighted by its float range and blended with StatTrak — rather than a live quote for a single listing. Drop odds follow the published CS2 container rates. Expected value is what an average open is worth across many openings; individual results vary widely.