Fracture Case

Knives in pool

Released July 13, 2020

EV prices via Skinport

Est. EV / open

$0.89

Open cost

$2.94

Expected net

-$2.05

Expected return

-70%

Buy Fracture Case

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Open-cost calculator

Number of opens

Total cost: $29.40
Expected return: $8.95
Expected net: −$20.45
Chance of a rare special: 2.57%

Estimates weight each skin's price by its float range and StatTrak chance, on the published CS2 drop odds. Any single open still swings on the exact float you roll — over many opens, the house edge means you should expect to lose money.

Drop pool by rarity

Covert

Drop 0.64%Avg $37.21

Desert Eagle | Printstream$41.83
AK-47 | Legion of Anubis$32.58

Classified

Drop 3.2%Avg $4.34

M4A4 | Tooth Fairy$4.73
Glock-18 | Vogue$4.53
XM1014 | Entombed$3.77

Restricted

Drop 16%Avg $0.62

Tec-9 | Brother$0.70
MAG-7 | Monster Call$0.66
Galil AR | Connexion$0.60
MAC-10 | Allure$0.58
MP5-SD | Kitbash$0.56

Mil-Spec

Drop 80%Avg $0.11

P2000 | Gnarled$0.13
P250 | Cassette$0.12
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001$0.12
PP-Bizon | Runic$0.11
Negev | Ultralight$0.10
P90 | Freight$0.10
SG 553 | Ol' Rusty$0.10

★ Knives

Drop 0.26%Avg $127.27

★ Skeleton Knife | Fade
★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter
★ Nomad Knife | Fade

Each skin's value is estimated across all wear conditions — weighted by its float range and blended with StatTrak — rather than a live quote for a single listing. Drop odds follow the published CS2 container rates. Expected value is what an average open is worth across many openings; individual results vary widely.