Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

Knives in pool

Released November 5, 2014

EV prices via Skinport

Est. EV / open

$4.00

Open cost

$6.30

Expected net

-$2.30

Expected return

-36%

Buy Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

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Open-cost calculator

Number of opens

Total cost: $63.00
Expected return: $40.04
Expected net: −$22.96
Chance of a rare special: 2.57%

Estimates weight each skin's price by its float range and StatTrak chance, on the published CS2 drop odds. Any single open still swings on the exact float you roll — over many opens, the house edge means you should expect to lose money.

Drop pool by rarity

Covert

Drop 0.64%Avg $79.45

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel$83.76
P2000 | Fire Elemental$75.13

Classified

Drop 3.2%Avg $11.64

XM1014 | Tranquility$13.96
P250 | Cartel$12.00
SCAR-20 | Cardiac$8.97

Restricted

Drop 16%Avg $6.12

M4A1-S | Basilisk$11.06
M4A4 | Griffin$8.49
Glock-18 | Grinder$3.16
Sawed-Off | Highwayman$1.75

Mil-Spec

Drop 80%Avg $1.49

Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard$2.79
MAG-7 | Firestarter$2.09
MP9 | Dart$0.99
G3SG1 | Murky$0.80
UMP-45 | Delusion$0.80

★ Knives

Drop 0.26%Avg $367.16

★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT
★ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened
★ Karambit | Fade

Each skin's value is estimated across all wear conditions — weighted by its float range and blended with StatTrak — rather than a live quote for a single listing. Drop odds follow the published CS2 container rates. Expected value is what an average open is worth across many openings; individual results vary widely.