Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

Knives in pool

Released November 5, 2014

EV prices via Skinport

Est. EV / open

$4.70

Open cost

$7.07

Expected net

-$2.37

Expected return

-34%

Buy Operation Vanguard Weapon Case

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Open-cost calculator

Number of opens

Total cost: $70.70
Expected return: $47.00
Expected net: −$23.70
Chance of a rare special: 2.57%

Estimates weight each skin's price by its float range and StatTrak chance, on the published CS2 drop odds. Any single open still swings on the exact float you roll — over many opens, the house edge means you should expect to lose money.

Drop pool by rarity

Covert

Drop 0.64%Avg $86.32

AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel$93.16
P2000 | Fire Elemental$79.48

Classified

Drop 3.2%Avg $12.86

XM1014 | Tranquility$15.51
P250 | Cartel$12.61
SCAR-20 | Cardiac$10.45

Restricted

Drop 16%Avg $7.40

M4A1-S | Basilisk$12.66
M4A4 | Griffin$10.37
Glock-18 | Grinder$4.15
Sawed-Off | Highwayman$2.42

Mil-Spec

Drop 80%Avg $1.93

Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard$3.16
MAG-7 | Firestarter$2.44
MP9 | Dart$1.82
UMP-45 | Delusion$1.14
G3SG1 | Murky$1.11

★ Knives

Drop 0.26%Avg $388.98

★ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT
★ Karambit | Fade
★ Karambit

Each skin's value is estimated across all wear conditions — weighted by its float range and blended with StatTrak — rather than a live quote for a single listing. Drop odds follow the published CS2 container rates. Expected value is what an average open is worth across many openings; individual results vary widely.