Operation Wildfire Case

Knives in pool

Released January 19, 2016

EV prices via Skinport

Est. EV / open

$3.08

Open cost

$5.14

Expected net

-$2.06

Expected return

-40%

Buy Operation Wildfire Case

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Open-cost calculator

Number of opens

Total cost: $51.40
Expected return: $30.81
Expected net: −$20.59
Chance of a rare special: 2.57%

Estimates weight each skin's price by its float range and StatTrak chance, on the published CS2 drop odds. Any single open still swings on the exact float you roll — over many opens, the house edge means you should expect to lose money.

Drop pool by rarity

Covert

Drop 0.64%Avg $94.98

AK-47 | Fuel Injector$151.23
M4A4 | The Battlestar$38.73

Classified

Drop 3.2%Avg $18.59

Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon$23.78
AWP | Elite Build$16.80
Nova | Hyper Beast$15.19

Restricted

Drop 16%Avg $4.53

FAMAS | Valence$6.13
Glock-18 | Royal Legion$5.52
MP7 | Impire$3.98
MAG-7 | Praetorian$3.58
Five-SeveN | Triumvirate$3.46

Mil-Spec

Drop 80%Avg $1.10

USP-S | Lead Conduit$2.02
MAC-10 | Lapis Gator$1.22
Tec-9 | Jambiya$1.00
Dual Berettas | Cartel$0.87
SSG 08 | Necropos$0.77
PP-Bizon | Photic Zone$0.70

★ Knives

Drop 0.26%Avg $105.69

★ Bowie Knife | Fade
★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened
★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Each skin's value is estimated across all wear conditions — weighted by its float range and blended with StatTrak — rather than a live quote for a single listing. Drop odds follow the published CS2 container rates. Expected value is what an average open is worth across many openings; individual results vary widely.