Shadow Case

Knives in pool

Released September 15, 2015

EV prices via Skinport

Est. EV / open

$1.85

Open cost

$3.75

Expected net

-$1.90

Expected return

-51%

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Open-cost calculator

Number of opens

Total cost: $37.50
Expected return: $18.50
Expected net: −$19.00
Chance of a rare special: 2.57%

Estimates weight each skin's price by its float range and StatTrak chance, on the published CS2 drop odds. Any single open still swings on the exact float you roll — over many opens, the house edge means you should expect to lose money.

Drop pool by rarity

Covert

Drop 0.64%Avg $70.16

USP-S | Kill Confirmed$77.44
M4A1-S | Golden Coil$62.88

Classified

Drop 3.2%Avg $15.41

AK-47 | Frontside Misty$21.75
G3SG1 | Flux$12.93
SSG 08 | Big Iron$11.55

Restricted

Drop 16%Avg $2.08

Galil AR | Stone Cold$3.56
MP7 | Special Delivery$1.65
P250 | Wingshot$1.65
M249 | Nebula Crusader$1.47

Mil-Spec

Drop 80%Avg $0.52

Glock-18 | Wraiths$0.89
FAMAS | Survivor Z$0.70
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons$0.65
MAG-7 | Cobalt Core$0.43
XM1014 | Scumbria$0.42
MAC-10 | Rangeen$0.30
SCAR-20 | Green Marine$0.27

★ Knives

Drop 0.26%Avg $61.40

★ Shadow Daggers | Fade
★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter
★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Each skin's value is estimated across all wear conditions — weighted by its float range and blended with StatTrak — rather than a live quote for a single listing. Drop odds follow the published CS2 container rates. Expected value is what an average open is worth across many openings; individual results vary widely.