Shadow Case

Knives in pool

Released September 15, 2015

EV prices via Skinport

Est. EV / open

$2.13

Open cost

$3.98

Expected net

-$1.85

Expected return

-47%

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Open-cost calculator

Number of opens

Total cost: $39.80
Expected return: $21.29
Expected net: −$18.51
Chance of a rare special: 2.57%

Estimates weight each skin's price by its float range and StatTrak chance, on the published CS2 drop odds. Any single open still swings on the exact float you roll — over many opens, the house edge means you should expect to lose money.

Drop pool by rarity

Covert

Drop 0.64%Avg $79.28

USP-S | Kill Confirmed$85.97
M4A1-S | Golden Coil$72.58

Classified

Drop 3.2%Avg $16.54

AK-47 | Frontside Misty$23.09
SSG 08 | Big Iron$13.46
G3SG1 | Flux$13.07

Restricted

Drop 16%Avg $2.45

Galil AR | Stone Cold$4.16
P250 | Wingshot$2.06
MP7 | Special Delivery$1.93
M249 | Nebula Crusader$1.65

Mil-Spec

Drop 80%Avg $0.66

Glock-18 | Wraiths$1.25
FAMAS | Survivor Z$0.91
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons$0.66
MAG-7 | Cobalt Core$0.57
MAC-10 | Rangeen$0.48
SCAR-20 | Green Marine$0.41
XM1014 | Scumbria$0.35

★ Knives

Drop 0.26%Avg $66.50

★ Shadow Daggers | Fade
★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter
★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Each skin's value is estimated across all wear conditions — weighted by its float range and blended with StatTrak — rather than a live quote for a single listing. Drop odds follow the published CS2 container rates. Expected value is what an average open is worth across many openings; individual results vary widely.