Thesis Track Record
Every market thesis is timestamped and immutable the moment it is published, then automatically graded against real CS2 prices when its horizon expires. This page is the complete graded record - hits, partials and misses alike. Nothing is edited or removed after the fact.
The first theses are still running
Theses are graded automatically when their horizon expires - the record fills in on its own, and nothing published here can be edited afterwards.
Methodology: a thesis is graded on the median per-item price change across its scope between publication and horizon. Hit = direction correct and at least half of the claimed minimum move realized; Partial = direction correct but smaller; Miss = direction wrong. Theses with too few priced items are marked invalid and excluded from the rates.